dr-forecast-variance

name dr-forecast-variance description Analyze budget vs forecast vs actual variances. Compares multi-scenario financial data for planning and performance review. user-invocable true allowed-tools ["mcp__datarails-finance-os__aggregate_table_data","Write","Read","Bash"] argument-hint --year <YYYY> [--scenarios <list>] [--period <YYYY-MM>] [--output-xlsx <file>] [--output-pptx <file>] Forecast Variance Analysis Analyze variances between Actuals, Budget, and Forecast scenarios. Essential for FP&A reviews, planning adjustments, and performance tracking. Arguments Argument Description Default --year <YYYY> REQUIRED Calendar year to analyze — --scenarios <list> Comma-separated scenarios Actuals,Budget,Forecast --period <YYYY-MM> Specific period to focus on All year --output-xlsx <file> Excel output path tmp/Forecast_Variance_YYYY_TIMESTAMP.xlsx --output-pptx <file> PowerPoint output path tmp/Forecast_Summary_YYYY_TIMESTAMP.pptx Variance Analysis Budget Variance Actual vs Budget amounts Percentage difference Favorable/unfavorable identification Trend analysis Forecast Variance Actual vs Forecast amounts Track forecast accuracy Identify forecast bias Forecast adjustment recommendations Multi-Account Analysis Revenue variance by product/segment Expense variance by department Account-level drill-down Root cause identification Datarails Brand Styling When generating Excel or PowerPoint files, apply Datarails brand styling: Font: Poppins (fall back to Calibri if unavailable). Weights: 400 regular, 600 semibold, 700 bold. Colors: Role Hex Use Navy 0C142B Header/banner background Main text 333333 Primary text Secondary 6D6E6F Muted/subtitle text Border 9EA1AA Cell borders Section bg F2F2FB Section header / row header background (lavender) Input bg EAEAFF Editable/input cell background Input text 4646CE Editable cell text (indigo) Favorable 2ECC71 Positive variance / good KPI delta Unfavorable E74C3C Negative variance / bad KPI delta Chart 1 0C142B Actuals (navy) Chart 2 F93576 Budget (hot pink) Chart 3 00B4D8 Teal Chart 4 FFA30F Amber Excel layout: Content starts at column B (column A is a narrow gutter) Rows 1-6: header banner with navy background, white title text, white subtitle Gridlines OFF. Freeze panes at B7. Footer as last row with generation date Every cell must have font, fill, alignment, and number format set Number formats: _(* #,##0_);_(* (#,##0);_(* "-"_);_(@_) (default), $#,##0 (dollars), $#,##0.0,,"M" (millions), 0.0% (percent) Variance coloring: Any cell showing a delta/change: green ( 2ECC71 ) if favorable, red ( E74C3C ) if unfavorable. Apply automatically based on value sign and metric context. PowerPoint: Navy ( 0C142B ) background, 16:9 widescreen, Poppins font, white text, amber ( FFA30F ) accent lines, card backgrounds 001F37 . Output Excel Report Summary : Total variances by scenario Variance Analysis : Account-by-account comparison Scenario Totals : Total by scenario Exception Report : Large variances highlighted PowerPoint Summary Overview slide: Scenario totals Variance slide: Top variances Executive summary Key findings Examples Annual variance analysis /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 With custom scenarios /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget Specific period focus /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --period 2025-Q4 Custom output /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 \ --output-xlsx reports/variance_2025.xlsx \ --output-pptx reports/variance_summary.pptx Use Cases Monthly FP&A Review # Compare latest actuals vs budget /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget Forecast Accuracy Tracking # Compare forecast prediction accuracy /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Forecast Full Scenario Planning # Complete comparison for board review /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget,Forecast Department Review # Analyze departmental performance vs budget /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 Investor Update # Professional variance analysis for stakeholders /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 Performance Analysis: ~1-3 minutes Scales to multiple years Handles 100+ accounts Efficient aggregation Interpretation Favorable Variance Actual > Budget (Revenue) ✅ Actual < Budget (Expense) ✅ Unfavorable Variance Actual < Budget (Revenue) ❌ Actual > Budget (Expense) ❌ % Variance <5%: Excellent forecast/budget accuracy 5-10%: Good, within normal range 10%+: Needs investigation Workflow FP&A Process : 1. /dr-extract --year 2025 (Get actuals) 2. /dr-reconcile --year 2025 (Validate data) 3. /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 (Analyze variances) 4. Present findings to leadership (Board meeting) Advanced Usage Track forecast improvement # Monthly variance tracking /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Forecast --period 2025-01 /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Forecast --period 2025-02 # Compare forecast accuracy trend Multi-year comparison /dr-forecast-variance --year 2024 --scenarios Actuals,Budget /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget # Compare year-over-year performance Scenario sensitivity # Three different budget scenarios /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget_Conservative,Budget_Aggressive Error Handling "Scenario not found" - Verify scenario exists in data "No variance data" - Confirm Budget/Forecast scenarios available "Large variance" - Review detailed Excel report for root causes Integration Works with: /dr-extract - Source of scenario data /dr-insights - Contextual trend analysis /dr-reconcile - Validate scenario consistency /dr-dashboard - Current performance view Related Skills /dr-extract - Extract scenario data /dr-insights - Understand drivers of variances /dr-reconcile - Validate data consistency /dr-dashboard - Real-time performance