scenario-war-room

name scenario-war-room description Cross-functional what-if modeling for cascading multi-variable scenarios. Unlike single-assumption stress testing, this models compound adversity across all business functions simultaneously. Use when facing complex risk scenarios, strategic decisions with major downside, or when the user asks 'what if X AND Y both happen?' license MIT metadata {"version":"1.0.0","author":"Alireza Rezvani","category":"c-level","domain":"strategic-planning","updated":"2026-03-05T00:00:00.000Z","python-tools":"scenario_modeler.py","frameworks":"scenario-planning"} Scenario War Room Model cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests — compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next. Keywords scenario planning, war room, what-if analysis, risk modeling, cascading effects, compound risk, adversity planning, contingency planning, stress test, crisis planning, multi-variable scenario, pre-mortem Quick Start python scripts/scenario_modeler.py # Interactive scenario builder with cascade modeling Or describe the scenario in natural language: "What if we lose our top customer AND miss the Q3 fundraise?" "What if 3 engineers quit AND we need to ship by Q3?" "What if our market shrinks 30% AND a competitor raises $50M?" What This Is Not Not a single-assumption stress test (that's /em:stress-test ) Not financial modeling only — every function gets modeled Not worst-case-only — models 3 severity levels Not paralysis by analysis — outputs concrete hedges and triggers Framework: 6-Step Cascade Model Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (max 3) State each variable with: What changes — specific, quantified if possible Probability — your best estimate Timeline — when it hits Variable A: Top customer (28% ARR) gives 60-day termination notice Probability: 15% | Timeline: Within 90 days Variable B: Series A fundraise delayed 6 months beyond target close Probability: 25% | Timeline: Q3 Variable C: Lead engineer resigns Probability: 20% | Timeline: Unknown Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping For each variable, each relevant role models impact: Domain Owner Models Cash & runway CFO Burn impact, runway change, bridge options Revenue CRO ARR gap, churn cascade risk, pipeline Product CPO Roadmap impact, PMF risk Engineering CTO Velocity impact, key person risk People CHRO Attrition cascade, hiring freeze implications Operations COO Capacity, OKR impact, process risk Security CISO Compliance timeline risk Market CMO CAC impact, competitive exposure Step 3: Cascade Effect Mapping This is the core. Show how Variable A triggers consequences in domains that trigger Variable B's effects: TRIGGER: Customer churn ($560K ARR) ↓ CFO: Runway drops 14 → 8 months ↓ CHRO: Hiring freeze; retention risk increases (morale hit) ↓ CTO: 3 open engineering reqs frozen; roadmap slips ↓ CPO: Q4 feature launch delayed → customer retention risk ↓ CRO: NRR drops; existing accounts see reduced velocity → more churn risk ↓ CFO: [Secondary cascade — potential death spiral if not interrupted] Name the cascade explicitly. Show where it can be interrupted. Step 4: Severity Matrix Model three scenarios: Scenario Definition Recovery Base One variable hits; others don't Manageable with plan Stress Two variables hit simultaneously Requires significant response Severe All variables hit; full cascade Existential; requires board intervention For each severity level: Runway impact ARR impact Headcount impact Timeline to unacceptable state (trigger point) Step 5: Trigger Points (Early Warning Signals) Define the measurable signal that tells you a scenario is unfolding before it's confirmed: Trigger for Customer Churn Risk: - Sponsor goes dark for >3 weeks - Usage drops >25% MoM - No Q1 QBR confirmed by Dec 1 Trigger for Fundraise Delay: - <3 term sheets after 60 days of process - Lead investor requests >30-day extension on DD - Competitor raises at lower valuation (market signal) Trigger for Engineering Attrition: - Glassdoor activity from engineering team - 2+ referral interview requests from engineers - Above-market offer counter-required in last 3 months Step 6: Hedging Strategies For each scenario: actions to take now (before the scenario materializes) that reduce impact if it does. Hedge Cost Impact Owner Deadline Establish $500K credit line $5K/year Buys 3 months if churn hits CFO 60 days 12-month retention bonus for 3 key engineers $90K Locks team through fundraise CHRO 30 days Diversify to <20% revenue concentration per customer Sales effort Reduces single-customer risk CRO 2 quarters Compress fundraise timeline, start parallel process CEO time Closes before runways merge CEO Immediate Output Format Every war room session produces: SCENARIO: [Name] Variables: [A, B, C] Most likely path: [which combination actually plays out, with probability] SEVERITY LEVELS Base (A only): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions] Stress (A+B): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions] Severe (A+B+C): [runway/ARR impact] — existential risk: [yes/no] CASCADE MAP [A → domain impact → B trigger → domain impact → end state] EARLY WARNING SIGNALS - [Signal 1 → which scenario it indicates] - [Signal 2 → which scenario it indicates] - [Signal 3 → which scenario it indicates] HEDGES (take these actions now) 1. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date] 2. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date] 3. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date] RECOMMENDED DECISION [One paragraph. What to do, in what order, and why.] Rules for Good War Room Sessions Max 3 variables per scenario. More than 3 is noise — you can't meaningfully prepare for 5-variable collapse. Model the 3 that actually worry you. Quantify or estimate. "Revenue drops" is not useful. "$420K ARR at risk over 60 days" is. Use ranges if uncertain. Don't stop at first-order effects. The damage is always in the cascade, not the initial hit. Model recovery, not just impact. Every scenario should have a "what we do" path. Separate base case from sensitivity. Don't conflate "what probably happens" with "what could happen." Don't over-model. 3-4 scenarios per planning cycle is the right number. More creates analysis paralysis. Common Scenarios by Stage Seed: Co-founder leaves + product misses launch Funding runs out + bridge terms unfavorable Series A: Miss ARR target + fundraise delayed Key customer churns + competitor raises Series B: Market contraction + burn multiple spikes Lead investor wants pivot + team resists Integration with C-Suite Roles Scenario Type Primary Roles Cascade To Revenue miss CRO, CFO CMO (pipeline), COO (cuts), CHRO (layoffs) Key person departure CHRO, COO CTO (if eng), CRO (if sales) Fundraise failure CFO, CEO COO (runway extension), CHRO (hiring freeze) Security breach CISO, CTO CEO (comms), CFO (cost), CRO (customer impact) Market shift CEO, CPO CMO (repositioning), CRO (new segments) Competitor move CMO, CRO CPO (roadmap response), CEO (strategy) References references/scenario-planning.md — Shell methodology, pre-mortem, Monte Carlo, cascade frameworks scripts/scenario_modeler.py — CLI tool for structured scenario modeling